CASE 11 - Scattered convection over coastal plain

(Line to NE and scattered to SW over GOC)


Microphysical scans 2030 - 2245 Z, 2h 15m

(System lifetime: 1830 - 2245 Z)






Synoptic feature map -

IOP status - IOP #3 in effect (see report). This IOP (0Z 7/20-0Z 7/23) captured the breakdown of a monsoon ridge over the domain, along with several wind surges over the GOC including a major Gulf Surge (GS#2). GS#2 initiated prior to this time period, from 10-18Z on 7/22, due to ouflow of a large quasi-linear MCS that stretched from Sonora to the S GOC. During this time period, GS#2 was waning. At 6Z on 7/23, GS#2 ramped up due to the outflow from an MCS that formed along the AZ, NM, Mexico border and moved out over the northern GOC.


IV#6 over central Mexico, well east of S-Pol domain.



Day 0 forecast discussion text



200 mb - model.ETA.200407230000.00_200mb_wnd.gif

500 mb - model.ETA.200407230000.00_500mb_wnd.gif

700 mb - model.ETA.200407230000.00_700mb_wnd.gif

850 mb - model.ETA.200407230000.00_850mb_wnd.gif


Mazatlan SkewT - ops.SkewT.200407221500.Mazatlan_MX.gif - ops.SkewT.200407222100.Mazatlan_MX.gif




EVENT SUMMARY: NW-SE oriented line to NE of S-Pol, along with scattered intense convection to SW over GOC.


24 h precipitation totals -


2024Z, GOES-10 Vis




S-POL SUMMARY: NOTE - may be interesting case to look at in terms of rainfall microphysics.




1830-1930 Z

Cell <40 km SE of S-Pol is oriented N-S, parallel to low-level flow. This line loses fine structure by 1930Z. Time loop shows low-level boundary interactions in vicinity of S-Pol.


1830 Z, Base reflectivity.


1930Z, Base reflectivity.


2015 Z

NW-SE oriented convective line to the E of S-Pol.


2015 Z, Base reflectivity.


2030 Z

Begin Microphysical Scans, Switching to MicroNear135: Centered sector over NE quadrant. This was a tough decision as there was still convective activity to the SW over the GOC.


2145 Z

Cell ~30 km N has 60+ dBZ, Kdp ~ 3 deg/km, and S-Pol log suggests this is due to drops with ice cores that are possibly producing anomalously high phase shift for given reflectivity. Log also states that Zdr cross-sections not indicating much in the way of Zdr columns above freeze level - also no evidence of LDR cap.

2115 Z

Most of intense convective activity remains to NE, as opposed to that over GOC to SW.


2115 Z, Base reflectivity.


2154 Z

Running Profiler Sequence (2PPI, 2RHI): Convective line passed right over NOAA profiler, warranting scans.


2200 Z, Base reflectivity.


2245 Z

End Microphysical Scanning, Switching to ClimoNear: Convective activity waning.