CASE 16 - Cells to the SE propagate towards S-Pol, organize into bow-shaped convective line w/ enhanced flow behind it


Microphysical scans 0430 - 0730 Z, 3h





Synoptic feature map -

IOP status - No IOP called a this time.


Low-level (700 mb) moisture prevalent in much of Tier 1 domain, including S-Pol region.


Small jet has formed between cyclonic circulation off the east coast of Mexico and 500 mb anticyclone to the NW - jet is bring moisture into Tier 1 from Gulf of Mexico.


Tropical Wave #28 tracking westward, will be due S of Mazatlan (at 10 deg N) in the next day or two.




Day 0 forecast discussion text



200 mb - model.ETA.200408020000.06_200mb_wnd.gif

500 mb - model.ETA.200408020000.06_500mb_wnd.gif

700 mb - model.ETA.200408020000.06_700mb_wnd.gif

850 mb - model.ETA.200408020000.06_850mb_wnd.gif




EVENT SUMMARY: Cells formed to the SE of S-Pol, propagated towards the NW into the S-Pol domain. Cells organized into a bow-shaped convective line, located to the E/NE of S-Pol, at ~0530 Z. By 0700 Z, convection was dissipating.


0539Z, GOES-10 Thermal IR


24 h precipitation totals -






0232 Z

Mesoscale system propagating into S-Pol domain from the SE.


0230Z, Base reflectivity


0300 Z

SE quadrant filling up with storms.


0300Z, Base reflectivity


0430 Z

Begin Microphysical Scanning, Switching to MicroNear135: Centered sectors on 90 deg. Strongest storms due E at ~40-60 km, moving to the NW.


0430Z, Base reflectivity


0500 - 0600 Z

Some new cell growth observed, but overall intensity was waning. At 0530 Z, a bow-shaped emerged from 45-90 deg at 120-150 km range.


0530Z, Base reflectivity


0619 Z

Easterly flow enhanced behind the bow-shaped convective line to the E/NE as it moves westward.


0615Z, Base reflectivity


0615Z, Base radial velocity


0745 Z

End Microphysical Scanning, Stopping radar: Switched to ClimoNear at 0748 Z.