CASE 21 - Afternoon convection over SMO exhibiting some organization

8/8/04

Microphysical scans 2115 - 2345 Z, 2h 30m

 

 

SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS SUMMARY:

Upper-level (250 mb) high located just S of the AZ/Mexico border was pulling moisture eastward towards the coastal areas.

 

Zones 6 & 7 (includes Mazatlan area) under region of upper-level divergence due to an upper-level circulation over Chihuahua. Also, these areas experiencing enhanced orographic lift.

 

IV#9 moving NWward, now west of Baja

 

IV#10 moving Wward, set to move off Mexico coast in the next day or so.

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Day 0 forecast discussion text

 

Winds

200 mb - model.ETA.200408090000.00_200mb_wnd.gif

500 mb - model.ETA.200408090000.00_500mb_wnd.gif

700 mb - model.ETA.200408090000.00_700mb_wnd.gif

850 mb - model.ETA.200408090000.00_850mb_wnd.gif

 

Mazatlan SkewT - ops.SkewT.200408090000.Mazatlan_MX.gif

 

 

EVENT SUMMARY: Scattered convection over SMO, showed some organization.

 

2339Z, GOES-10 Vis

 

 

2339Z, GOES-10 Thermal IR

 

24 h precipitation totals -

 

 

S-POL SUMMARY: Captured lifecycle of a group of cells that developed to the E/SE over the foothills and moved NW-ward towards S-Pol. Cell conglomerate exhibited a NE-SW oriented linear orientation throughout much of its lifetime. Other moderately intense cells formed to the N, which were captured by sector scans at times.

 

S-Pol log - spol_080804.txt

 

SCAN OVERVIEW:

 

2030 Z

Cell development over foothills to the S/SE - a new convective line to the SE at ~120-150 km, aligned SW-NE. PID shows some hail in higher reflectivity cells. Cells moving NW-ward, towards S-Pol.

 

2030 Z, Base reflectivity

 

2115 Z

Begin Microphysical Scanning, Switching to MicroFar135: Centered on E/SE sector to capture lifecycle of loosely organized cells at 80-120 km.

 

2115Z, Base reflectivity

 

2130 Z

Despite new cell growth to N/NE, keeping center on cells to S/SE to capture full lifecycle. RHI @ 109 deg yielded high reflectivity and stratiform region.

 

2145 Z

Re-centered sector on 82.5 deg, RHI on 124 deg.

 

2145Z, Base reflectivity

 

2200 Z

Switching to MicroNear135: High reflectivity (30+ dBZ up to 16 km) cell at 30 km to SE (log says SW, but canít verify on available radar images).

 

2215Z, Base reflectivity

 

2227 Z

Cell close to radar has strong low-level convergence.

 

2250 Z

Cells to N/NE continued to develop - keeping eye on them. Keeping sector scans on S/SE storms to complete lifecycle study.

 

2254Z, Base reflectivity cross-section (cell to SE)

 

2254Z, Base reflectivity cross-section (cell to SE)

 

2322 Z

Nice line to NE has formed out of isolated cells. RHI at 17 deg.

 

2330Z, Base reflectivity

 

2345 Z

End Microphysical Scanning, Switching to ClimoNear: System to SE dying. Still scattered cells to N/NE.